Ether (ETH), the native token of Ethereum, is showing signs of bullish exhaustion after a steep 65% decline over the past three months. The pace of the downtrend and the oversold conditions shown by various ETH price metrics have investors wondering if a market bottom is approaching.
ETH fractals point to a drop to $1,000
Ether’s current price action mirrors a familiar fractal pattern seen in 2018 and 2022. In both instances, ETH price saw euphoric rallies that ended with sharp breakdowns and prolonged bear markets.
Each of these cycles shared the following key traits:
ETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
After the price peak (cycle tops in the chart above), ETH retraced heavily, often falling through key Fibonacci levels.
Cycle bottoms typically formed once the RSI dipped into oversold territory (below 30), with price stabilizing near historical Fibonacci zones.
The current setup resembles this structure.
In December 2024, Ether formed a higher high near $4,095, while the RSI made a lower high—mirroring the bearish divergence seen in previous tops. This divergence marked the beginning of a sharp correction, much like the patterns seen in 2018 and 2022.
Currently, ETH’s price has closed below the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level at around $1,550. Meanwhile, its weekly RSI is still above the oversold threshold of 30, suggesting room for further declines, at least until the reading drops below 30.
ETH/USD weekly RSI performance chart. Source: TradingView
The fractal suggests Ethereum could be in the final leg of its decline, with the next potential price targets inside the $990 – $1,240 price range, aligning with the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement area.
Source: Mike McGlone
Related: 3 reasons Ethereum could turn a corner: Kain Warwick, X Hall of Flame
Ethereum NUPL falls into ‘capitulation’ — Another bottom indicator
Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has entered the “capitulation” zone—an onchain phase where most investors are holding ETH at a loss. In previous cycles, similar moves into this zone occurred close to major market bottoms.
Ethereum NUPL vs. price chart. Source: Glassnode
In March 2020, the NUPL turned negative just before ETH rebounded sharply following the COVID-19 market crash. A similar pattern emerged in June 2022, when the metric fell into capitulation territory shortly before Ethereum established a bear market low of around $880.
Now that ETH is once again entering this zone, the current setup loosely echoes those prior bottoming phases—coinciding with key Fibonacci support levels near $1,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
